This week, we're taking a deep dive into the investment potential of the original Tesla Roadster, produced from 2008 to 2012. Our analysis is based on comprehensive sales data from 2018 to 2024, coupled with production figures and market trends.

Why? I bought one last week after being on the hunt for the past few years. It’s been a grail car of mine to collect and the perfect one came along. It’s one of 24 still in existence in brilliant yellow (the rarest color) and it has a brand new R80 battery pack!

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Production Volume: Rarer Than You Might Think

First, let's correct a common misconception. While our dataset includes 53 sales, this is not indicative of the total production. According to Tesla's official figures:

• Total Production: 2,450 units

• North American Sales: ~1,650 units

• European Sales: ~575 units

• Asian Sales: ~225 units

This limited production run places the Roadster in an exclusive category, comparable to some limited-edition supercars.

Price Trends: A Detailed Analysis

Let's break down the price trends over the years:

1. Year-over-Year Average Price:

   • 2018: $38,250 (only one data point)

   • 2019: $48,500

   • 2020: $52,420

   • 2021: $114,792

   • 2022: $129,019

   • 2023: $113,476

   • 2024 (partial): $78,602

2. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): From 2019 to 2023, the CAGR is approximately 23.7%, indicating strong year-over-year growth.

3. Price by Model Year:

   • 2008 Models: Average $92,890 (24 sales)

   • 2010 Models: Average $81,234 (15 sales)

   • 2011 Models: Average $105,668 (9 sales)

4. Special Editions:

   • Signature 100/One Hundred Editions: Average $180,873 (4 sales)

   • Non-Special Editions: Average $86,115

5. R80 3.0 Upgrade Impact:

   • With R80 3.0: Average $106,517 (6 sales)

   • Without R80 3.0: Average $86,115

   • Price Premium: 23.7%

Market Trends and Analysis

1. Initial Depreciation and Rebound: The data shows a clear V-shaped trend. From 2018 to 2020, prices were relatively low (average $46,390), likely reflecting initial depreciation. From 2021 onward, we see a significant rebound, with prices more than doubling.

2. Peak Pricing: The years 2022 and 2023 show the highest average prices, suggesting a potential market peak. However, more data is needed to confirm if this is a temporary ceiling or a new baseline.

3. Model Year Impact: Interestingly, 2011 models command higher prices on average than 2008 models, despite 2008 being the inaugural year. This could be due to technological improvements in later models or the specific options available.

4. Special Edition Premium: Signature editions command a substantial premium, selling for more than double the average price of standard models. This premium has remained consistent over time.

5. Upgrade Value: The R80 3.0 battery upgrade adds significant value, with a 23.7% price premium. This suggests that technological relevance plays a crucial role in valuation.

6. Price Volatility: There's considerable price volatility even within the same year. For example, in 2023, prices ranged from $66,000 to $220,420. This volatility could be attributed to factors like condition, mileage, and specific model variants.

7. Market Softening in 2024? The partial data for 2024 shows a lower average price than previous years. This could indicate a market correction or simply be a result of the specific models sold so far this year.

Investment Outlook

Based on this detailed analysis, we can draw several conclusions:

1. Long-term Appreciation: Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall trend shows strong appreciation since 2018.

2. Rarity Premium: With only 2,450 units produced, scarcity is a significant factor driving values upward.

3. Technological Relevance: The value added by the R80 3.0 upgrade suggests that keeping the car technologically current can significantly impact its value.

4. Special Edition Focus: Signature editions have shown the most consistent high values, making them potentially safer investments.

5. Potential Market Maturation: The slight downturn in 2024 prices could indicate a maturing market. However, it's too early to confirm this trend.

6. Volatility Opportunity: The wide price ranges present opportunities for savvy buyers to acquire undervalued examples.

Buying Strategy in Current Market

1. Focus on Provenance: Given the price volatility, cars with exceptional histories or original owner cars may offer more stable value.

2. Consider Later Models: The higher average prices for 2011 models suggest these might be undervalued compared to 2008 models.

3. R80 3.0 Upgrade: If choosing between two similar cars, the one with the R80 3.0 upgrade likely offers better value and future-proofing.

4. Special Editions: While expensive, Signature editions have shown the most consistent high values and might be the safest long-term bet.

5. Condition Over Year: Given the variability in prices, prioritize condition and maintenance history over specific year or early production numbers.

6. Watch for Market Dips: If the 2024 lower prices continue, it might present a buying opportunity before the next appreciation cycle.

Conclusion

The Tesla Roadster market shows strong overall appreciation with significant nuances based on model year, special editions, and technological updates. While the market shows signs of potential maturation, the Roadster's historical significance and scarcity suggest continued long-term value appreciation. As always, thorough research and inspection are crucial before any high-value purchase.

Stay tuned for next week's edition, where we'll explore another data-driven opportunity in the luxury car market!

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