Today, we're taking a closer look at the Tesla Cybertruck, expanding our analysis to cover recent developments and future predictions. Since its limited release in March 2024, the Cybertruck has shown fascinating market behavior, and there's more to the story than just the numbers.

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Introduction

This analysis compares the pricing trends of the Tesla Cybertruck All-Wheel Drive (AWD) model and the high-performance Cyberbeast trim. We'll examine data from their respective launches through August 19, 2024, focusing on average prices, price floors, supply dynamics, and week-over-week changes.

Launch and Initial Pricing

AWD Model

• Launch Date: March 4, 2024

• Initial Average Price: $227,014

• Initial Minimum Price: $199,500

Cyberbeast Trim

• Launch Date: May 6, 2024 (9 weeks after AWD)

• Initial Average Price: $185,404

• Initial Minimum Price: $171,999

Key Insight: The Cyberbeast launched at a lower average price than the AWD's initial price, indicating a more controlled release strategy.

Price Trend Analysis

AWD Model (24 weeks of data)

• Current Average Price (Aug 19, 2024): $125,426

• Current Minimum Price: $99,985

• Total Price Decrease: 44.7%

• Average Weekly Decrease: 1.86%

Weekly Price Progression:

1. Weeks 1-4: Rapid decline (-16.5% total)

2. Weeks 5-8: Accelerated drop (-20.3% total)

3. Weeks 9-16: Gradual decline (-15.6% total)

4. Weeks 17-24: Stabilization (-3.2% total)

Cyberbeast Trim (16 weeks of data)

• Current Average Price (Aug 19, 2024): $150,234

• Current Minimum Price: $118,999

• Total Price Decrease: 18.9%

• Average Weekly Decrease: 1.18%

Weekly Price Progression:

1. Weeks 1-4: Moderate decline (-7.0% total)

2. Weeks 5-8: Slight drop (-3.9% total)

3. Weeks 9-12: Gradual decline (-4.3% total)

4. Weeks 13-16: Stabilization (-2.9% total)

Key Insight: The AWD model experienced a much steeper initial price drop, while the Cyberbeast maintained a more stable pricing trajectory.

Supply Dynamics

AWD Model

• Initial Supply (Week 1): 7 units

• Current Supply (Week 24): 541 units

• Supply Increase: 7,628%

• Average Weekly Supply Increase: 31.8%

Cyberbeast Trim

• Initial Supply (Week 1): 14 units

• Current Supply (Week 16): 139 units

• Supply Increase: 893%

• Average Weekly Supply Increase: 55.8%

Key Insight: Despite launching later, the Cyberbeast had a faster weekly supply increase, suggesting a more aggressive production ramp-up.

Price Floor Analysis

AWD Model

• Initial Price Floor (Week 1): $199,500

• Current Price Floor (Week 24): $99,985

• Total Floor Decrease: 49.9%

Cyberbeast Trim

• Initial Price Floor (Week 1): $171,999

• Current Price Floor (Week 16): $118,999

• Total Floor Decrease: 30.8%

Key Insight: The AWD model's price floor has nearly aligned with Tesla's direct sales price of $100,000, while the Cyberbeast maintains a premium.

Week-over-Week Volatility

AWD Model

• Highest Weekly Drop: 15.3% (Week 1 to Week 2)

• Lowest Weekly Drop: 0.1% (Week 23 to Week 24)

• Weeks with Price Increases: 0

Cyberbeast Trim

• Highest Weekly Drop: 3.4% (Week 3 to Week 4)

• Lowest Weekly Drop: 0.3% (Week 15 to Week 16)

• Weeks with Price Increases: 0

Key Insight: The AWD model showed significantly higher price volatility, especially in the early weeks.

Price Premium Analysis

• Initial Cyberbeast Premium (based on minimum prices): -13.8% (lower than AWD)

• Current Cyberbeast Premium (based on minimum prices): 19.0%

• Premium Shift: 32.8 percentage points

Key Insight: The Cyberbeast has transitioned from being priced below the AWD model to commanding a significant premium.

Future Pricing Implications

• AWD Future Base Price: $80,000 (20% below current minimum)

• Cyberbeast Future Base Price: $100,000 (16% below current minimum)

Key Insight: The announced future base prices suggest that both models may see further price reductions, with the AWD potentially experiencing a more significant drop.

Market Positioning and Demand Indicators

AWD Model

• Faster price depreciation suggests higher price elasticity of demand

• Wider range between average and minimum prices indicates more market segmentation

Cyberbeast Trim

• Slower price depreciation suggests less price-sensitive demand

• Narrower price range indicates more consistent market valuation

Conclusion

The data reveals distinct market behaviors for the AWD and Cyberbeast Cybertruck models:

1. The AWD model experienced rapid price adjustments, likely due to a combination of initial hype and subsequent supply increases.

2. The Cyberbeast demonstrates more price stability, maintaining a premium position despite a later launch.

3. Supply ramp-up has been more aggressive for the Cyberbeast, potentially indicating higher production efficiency or stronger demand.

4. Both models are approaching their respective direct sales prices, with the AWD nearly reaching its current floor.

5. The future base prices suggest that both models may see further market adjustments, potentially reshaping their competitive positioning.

This analysis indicates a maturing market for the Cybertruck, with prices stabilizing and supply increasing. The differentiation between the AWD and Cyberbeast models appears to be solidifying, with the Cyberbeast maintaining its premium status more effectively.

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